Fact vs Fiction

Campaign 2008: Pundits Versus Reality

by Peter Daou

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton will lose New Hampshire and the race will be over THE REALITY Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, defying the predictions and the polls

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton will lose the big states on Super Tuesday and the race will be over THE REALITY Hillary Clinton wins the big states on Super Tuesday – and wins them by double digits

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton will lose Texas and possibly Ohio on March 4th and the race will be over THE REALITY Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio on March 4th – and she wins Ohio by double digits

 

THE PUNDITS Despite Hillary Clinton's big victories on March 4th, "the math" works decisively against her and the race is essentially over THE REALITY The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination and either candidate can win

 

THE PUNDITS Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over THE REALITY  The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome

 

THE PUNDITS Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don’t count; therefore the race is essentially over THE REALITY The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama's narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan

 

THE PUNDITS Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over THE REALITY The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton's situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate  THE REALITY Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key state of PA, where she is running strong

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton’s campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign THE REALITY Hillary Clinton’s supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls

 

THE PUNDITS There is a loud and growing chorus of voices asking Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race THE REALITY Precisely the same number of voters (22%) think Barack Obama should drop out of the race as Hillary Clinton

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the "kitchen sink" at Barack Obama THE REALITY Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day

 

THE PUNDITS For Hillary to win the nomination, super delegates will have to "overturn the will of the people" THE REALITY The will of the people is split and both candidates need - and are making their case to - super delegates

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton is threatening to poach pledged delegates from Barack Obama THE REALITY Barack Obama is reportedly already trying to poach pledged delegates from Hillary Clinton

 

THE PUNDITS Florida and Michigan’s voters won't be heard and their delegates won’t be seated all because of complicated procedural roadblocks THE REALITY Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he'll lose his small advantage if they count

 

THE PUNDITS Every single word or action from Hillary Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates and her supporters is part of a calculated and cynical political strategy THE REALITY Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat, a lifelong public servant, a tireless and tenacious candidate, and is fighting hard - and fair - to win with the help of millions of dedicated supporters

Always a different story

Compiled by hillaryclinton.com

Sen. Obama Offers 5th Explanation of NAFTA-Gate
3/10/2008 3:48:24 PM

After days of misleading denials, Sen. Obama has finally acknowledged that a meeting took place between his senior economic advisor and Canadian officials regarding NAFTA. But Sen. Obama now claims that the detailed memo obtained by the AP describing the meeting – and Goolsbee's downplaying of Obama's anti-NAFTA rhetoric – is inaccurate. This is at least the fifth different explanation offered by Sen. Obama and his campaign.

5. 3/10/08 – Sen. Obama: The meeting did happen, they did discuss NAFTA, but advisor just said Obama wanted to make NAFTA 'stronger for U.S. workers.' "So here’s what happens. You’ve got one of my economic advisors goes and visits a Canadian embassy and they’re asking him questions and he says, 'Well, Senator Obama isn’t planning to repeal NAFTA, but he wants to amend it to make it stronger for U.S. workers.' The Canadian embassy writes it up as, 'Well, maybe Obama is not as tough on NAFTA as you might think.' And the Clintons start waving this and saying, 'See? Actually, he’s the one.'" [Mississippi Rally, 3/10/08]

4. 2/29/08: Sen. Obama: 'It did not happen.' Anchor: "So, completely inaccurate, did not happen, end of discussion." Sen. Obama: "It did not happen." [WKYC TV, 2/29/08]

3. 2/28/08 - Rice: 'There had been no contact.' “The Canadian ambassador issued a statement that was absolutely false. There had been no contact. There had been no discussions on NAFTA. So we take the Canadians at their word…period.” [MSNBC, Susan Rice, 2/28/08]

2. 2/27/08 – Obama advisor just said 'hello.' "Goolsbee: Canada's consul general in Chicago contacted him ‘at one point to say ‘hello’ because their office is around the corner." [ABC, 2/29/08]

1. 2/27/08 – 'No conversations have taken place' with the Canadian government on NAFTA. “Earlier Thursday, the Obama campaign insisted that no conversations have taken place with any of its senior ranks and representatives of the Canadian government on the NAFTA issue.” [CTV, 2/29/08]

SNL at it again!

Another great SNL opener from last night!

They might have not endorsed Hillary officially, but they sure seem to like her!

Have the tides turned?

I wanted to leave you all with a few thoughts for the weekend. Over the past few days I was incapacitated with the flu and was unable to watch TV or check any online news. Perhaps I should get sick more often, as when I checked todays news there seems to lots of positive things out there about Mrs. Clinton. From Wolf telling us she "has her mojo back" to the talks about getting delegates from MI and FL seated at the convention this June.

While this new lean toward Hillary is more than welcome by me, I am left wondering if we really are all being played like a fiddle by the media. This whole election seems so orchestrated. We have front runner Clinton surpassed by the scrappy little Senator from Illinois only to once again come out on top a few months later. Throughout the whole debacle we have been glued to the TV, Internet and even our local papers. For once the media economy is being driven by something other than Britney Spears.

While the democratic party is being torn apart (I don't buy this whole "we will be a united party in the end BS" after the past few weeks), John McCain finesses his campaign and the media carefully crafts the next ups and downs of the campaign....

Obama the whiner

Firstly congratulations to Senator Clinton! Our voices were heard!!!

There has been a lot of whining from the Obama camp about the delegates and how they are assigned. Obama complains about the super delegates not having to be tied to the outcome of the state. This whole complaint, to me, seems rather childish and is a good example of the kind of leader Obama would be.

He wants to change the rules mid race. The fact is, that he knew these rules before the race started and only now, because the race is so close, he wants to bend them in his favor. CNN has even gone so far as to poll people in yesterday's elections to get their opinions. The majority of the people thought the super delegates should be tied to the outcome of the state. My question is: Did they even know what or who super delegates were before this race?

Perhaps these same people would be angry to know that in TX, where Sen. Clinton won the popular vote, she may receive less delegates? It is this same complex delegate math that keeps the race so close, and too tight to call.

My hypothetical, since that what Obama likes to deal in when it comes to delegates, is to take it all one step further. Why don't we see what it would be like if we had a winner takes all primary like the Republicans. The chart to your right are the current results of the primary if we are to follow the Republican model of winner take all (super delegates included).

What we see is that Clinton has a clear advantage, and then if you add in Florida and Michigan she is well on her way to sealing up the nomination. So maybe Barack better let the rules stay the way they have always been. Stop whining, Sen. Obama.

HILLARY appears on SNL!

Following another clever skit, one that again contrasted the media's fawning adulation of Obama with the biased hostility exhibited towards Hillary - Senator Clinton appeared to trade a few barbs with her impersonator Amy Poehler.

And, of course, to utter those seven famous words:

"Live from New York, it's Saturday Night!"

Thought on the war comments

I have been trying to process the debate from the other night and am still trying to figure out what impact it will have on Tuesday. One thing I am tired of is Obama priding himself with saying "NO" to Iraq. CNN writes today, quoting Obama: "Once we had driven the bus into the ditch, there were only so many ways we could get out," he said during Tuesday's debate in Ohio. "The question is, 'Who's making the decision initially to drive the bus into the ditch?' "

Well it wasn't him! A simple sentence, with no bias, could have followed: Senator Obama was not in national office at the time, and was therefore unable to cast a vote in either direction. Most uneducated voters would read the CNN article, or others like it and think that Sen. Obama had cast a vote against the war. He did not.

I was talking with fellow HOTforHILLARY blogger Scott, and he mentioned something very telling of the entire Obama phenomenon... Obama talks as if his saying no to Iraq as one of his greatest accomplishments. He often relies this opposition to the war as one of his biggest difference and therefore superior qualities to Sen. Clinton. Yet his biggest accomplishment, is an accomplishment of words! He was not in the Senate, and could not vote on this issue.

Where are his accomplishments of action???

Yet it is somehow fitting that, like his entire campaign, his proudest moment was one of non-action and simply words.

Who Knew SNL was could still be funny!

I had long given up on SNL. I miss my cast of Chris Katan, Anna Gasteyer, Cheri O'Teri, Molly Shannon, Will Ferrell and all.... Though I do love fellow BC grad Amy Pohler and think Kristin Wigg and Maya Rudolph are grand! This weekend was funny, and was the first place ot openly acknowledge Obama being in bed with the news media!

"Bitch is the new black" - Tina Fey

Hillary has been endorsed by the ladies of SNL!

Endorsements

Press Release from HRC:

Hillary Clinton to be Joined by Senior Retired Military and Defense Officials at Today’s Foreign Policy Speech

Clinton Unveils List of Flag Officers Endorsing Her for President

Hillary Clinton will set out her approach to American foreign policy in the 21st Century in a speech at George Washington University today. Joining her will be a group of senior retired military and defense officials who have endorsed her to be this nation’s next Commander-in-Chief. They are: General Wesley Clark, Lt. General Joe Ballard, Major General Antonio M. Taguba, Rear Admiral David Stone, Brigadier General John M. Watkins, Jr. and former Secretary of the Army Togo West. Generals Taguba and Watkins will formally announce their endorsement of Senator Clinton today.

Many of our nation’s most distinguished military officers stand proudly with Hillary Clinton because they believe that she has the strength, experience and leadership necessary to be President and Commander-in-Chief. They include three four-star generals, a former chairman and vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and many other Americans who have served their country with honor and distinction.

In addition to the endorsements of Generals Taguba and Watkins, Senator Clinton is proud to announce the endorsement today of Admiral William Owens (Ret.).

Admiral Owens served with distinction for more than 30 years in the Navy, rising to become Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the nation’s second highest ranking military officer.

Major General Taguba served his country with distinction for 34 years, retiring from the Army in 2007. The son of a Filipino-American who survived the 1942 Bataan Death March, General Taguba led the Army’s investigation into prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib in 2004.

Brigadier General John M. Watkins, Jr. served nearly 30 years in the Army and completed his military career as the Chief Operations Officer/Deputy Director of the Defense Information Systems Agency.

Admiral Owens, General Taguba, and General Watkins are among 27 flag-rank military officers who have endorsed Senator Clinton to be our nation’s next Commander-in-Chief. They join more than 2,000 veterans and military retirees who are members of Senator Clinton's national and state veterans’ steering committees.

Flag Officers Endorsing Hillary Clinton for President and Commander-in-Chief

1. General Wesley Clark
2. General John M. Shalikashvili
3. General Johnnie E. Wilson
4. Admiral William Owens
5. Lt. Gen. Joe Ballard
6. Lt. Gen. Robert Gard
7. Lt. Gen. Claudia J. Kennedy
8. Lt. Gen. Donald L. Kerrick
9. Lt. Gen. Frederick E. Vollrath
10. Vice Admiral Joseph A. Sestak
11. Major General Roger R. Blunt
12. Major General George A. Buskirk, Jr.
13. Major General Edward L. Correa, Jr.
14. Major General Paul D. Eaton
15. Major General Paul D. Monroe, Jr.
16. Major General Antonio M. Taguba
17. Rear Admiral Connie Mariano
18. Rear Admiral Alan M. Steinman
19. Rear Admiral David Stone
20. Brigadier General Michael Dunn
21. Brigadier General Belisario Flores
22. Brigadier General Evelyn "Pat" Foote
23. Brigadier General Keith H. Kerr
24. Brigadier General Virgil A. Richard
25. Brigadier General Preston Taylor
26. Brigadier General John M. Watkins, Jr.
27. Brigadier General Jack Yeager

CNN

Well, Senator Clinton has (rightly) gone on the attack this weekend. But what I wanted to point out is that CNN has been unfairly controlling their message boards. Several articles had what could be seen as anti Obama comments and CNN has removed them.

In the next few days, we plan on documenting this phenomenon as we aren't the only ones who have noticed it. Please contact CNN and let them know that YOU KNOW THEY ARE UNFAIRLY COVERING THIS ELECTION.

- Team Hot4Hillay.org -

Last Night

I am not sure which debate most of the media watched last night, but the one WE saw last night was dominated by Senator Clinton! Barack did virtually nothing but say he had substance, agree with Clinton, and defelct questions by saying, "I know we have to cover a lot, so I will keep it brief." Please don't keep it brief Senator Obama! I would rather you talk about ONE THING in detail than mention anything else at all.

What was most obvious was the opening statements of both Senators. Hillary outlined her plans, offered inspiring words, told stores of her life work and was sincere in her desire to set the country on a better course. Obama opened with a lot of sad stories and problems that the country has. He stated sad truths that got sympathetic applause. He basically said he would fix things, but offered NOTHING of substance in his openings statement or the rest of the debate for that matter. Watch below:





The media keeps wanting Hillary to blow him out of the water. Simple fact is that she has been since day one, the media just don't care or acknowledge it. Her final statement was poignant and demonstrates her true desire to be our President. The media's love affair with Obama is fading, but still strong. Campbell Brown was tougher on Obama than anyone has been in the past. But when will they ever ask him a tough question or push him on an issue. I hope they do soon, before it's too late.

The Great Debate Drinking Game 1.0!!!

Here are the rules to the game, as promised.

We even attached a large JPG so you can forward it around to all of your friends!

Stay tuned for next week, when we release The Great Debate Drinking Game 2.0!!!

Enjoy the debate and drink plenty of water before bed!


The Great Debate Drinking Game 1.0!!!

• Everytime Obama says the word “Change” take a sip of your beer (you may need a 30 pack per person for this rule)

• Everytime Wolf Blitzer references Bill Clinton to Hillary, slap your nearest girl friend on the ass and tell her to get you a beer

• Everytime Barack criticizes Senator Clinton’s vote on the Iraq war, tell one of your friend to drink his/her whole beer and then yell at them for doing it.

• When Obama says the word “Hope,” you have to chug your beer until he finishes the sentence.

• When Obama tries to play off his health care package as being the same as Hillary’s, make the person next to you drink his/her entire beer and you only drink half of it and then tell them its the same thing.

• Whenever Barack “subtly” references Hillary by mentioning the “Status Quo,” take one sip of your beer. Then remember all those US female Presidents, all 14 of our female Senators, the 70 (out of 435) members of Congress, and then take another drink for good measure.

And just so your Obama loving friends won’t
say this whole game is rigged, we offer the last rule:

• Whenever Hillary says, “Ready on day one,” take a half sip of your beer - because while she says this a lot, she’s right!

-HOTforHILLARY.org-

Time to get real!

"If she wins in Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her then I don't think she can. It's all on you." - President Bill Clinton

"It is time to get real. To get real about how we actually win this election… It is time to move from good words to good works — from sound bites to sound solutions." - Senator Hillary Clinton

"Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done." - James Carville, a current supporter of Hillary Clinton

I am happy to see the Clintons finally acknowledging that the Obama surge has had a real impact on people across the country, not matter how contrived and simplistic its message. In these next debates, Hillary will undoubtedly shine and prove herself the superior candidate. Yet, will anyone listen to her?

That has been the problem so far - no one wants to hear the well thought out answers of Senator Clinton. The frenzy that Barack creates has overwhelmed her at every turner, and many of you feel that it is increasingly hard to get people to listen.

Well, at Team Hot4Hillary, we have a solution! Later today, we will be posting the Hot4Hillary drinking game!!! Gather your friends up for tonights debate and next week's, get a couple six packs and enjoy! Once your Obama loving friends see how drunk and sick they've gotten, maybe a little light will go on in their heads. :)

Here is a teaser of what is to come....

• Everytime Obama says the word "Change" take a sip of your beer (you may need a 30 pack per person for this rule)
• Everytime Wolf Blitzer references Bill Clinton to Hillary, slap your nearest girl friend on the ass and tell her to get you a beer
• Everytime Barack criticizes Senator Clinton's vote on the Iraq war, tell one of your friend to drink his/her whole beer and then yell at them for doing it.

Complete rules will be up by 4!!!

-Kurt-

Remember this game

I used to love Lemmings when I was growing up!


Click to Play!!

I will let you draw your own conclusions about the characters of this game ands it relation the Obama fever....

-kurt-