Fact vs Fiction

Campaign 2008: Pundits Versus Reality

by Peter Daou

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton will lose New Hampshire and the race will be over THE REALITY Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, defying the predictions and the polls

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton will lose the big states on Super Tuesday and the race will be over THE REALITY Hillary Clinton wins the big states on Super Tuesday – and wins them by double digits

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton will lose Texas and possibly Ohio on March 4th and the race will be over THE REALITY Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio on March 4th – and she wins Ohio by double digits

 

THE PUNDITS Despite Hillary Clinton's big victories on March 4th, "the math" works decisively against her and the race is essentially over THE REALITY The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination and either candidate can win

 

THE PUNDITS Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over THE REALITY  The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome

 

THE PUNDITS Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don’t count; therefore the race is essentially over THE REALITY The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama's narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan

 

THE PUNDITS Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over THE REALITY The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton's situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate  THE REALITY Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key state of PA, where she is running strong

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton’s campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign THE REALITY Hillary Clinton’s supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls

 

THE PUNDITS There is a loud and growing chorus of voices asking Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race THE REALITY Precisely the same number of voters (22%) think Barack Obama should drop out of the race as Hillary Clinton

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the "kitchen sink" at Barack Obama THE REALITY Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day

 

THE PUNDITS For Hillary to win the nomination, super delegates will have to "overturn the will of the people" THE REALITY The will of the people is split and both candidates need - and are making their case to - super delegates

 

THE PUNDITS Hillary Clinton is threatening to poach pledged delegates from Barack Obama THE REALITY Barack Obama is reportedly already trying to poach pledged delegates from Hillary Clinton

 

THE PUNDITS Florida and Michigan’s voters won't be heard and their delegates won’t be seated all because of complicated procedural roadblocks THE REALITY Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he'll lose his small advantage if they count

 

THE PUNDITS Every single word or action from Hillary Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates and her supporters is part of a calculated and cynical political strategy THE REALITY Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat, a lifelong public servant, a tireless and tenacious candidate, and is fighting hard - and fair - to win with the help of millions of dedicated supporters

Always a different story

Compiled by hillaryclinton.com

Sen. Obama Offers 5th Explanation of NAFTA-Gate
3/10/2008 3:48:24 PM

After days of misleading denials, Sen. Obama has finally acknowledged that a meeting took place between his senior economic advisor and Canadian officials regarding NAFTA. But Sen. Obama now claims that the detailed memo obtained by the AP describing the meeting – and Goolsbee's downplaying of Obama's anti-NAFTA rhetoric – is inaccurate. This is at least the fifth different explanation offered by Sen. Obama and his campaign.

5. 3/10/08 – Sen. Obama: The meeting did happen, they did discuss NAFTA, but advisor just said Obama wanted to make NAFTA 'stronger for U.S. workers.' "So here’s what happens. You’ve got one of my economic advisors goes and visits a Canadian embassy and they’re asking him questions and he says, 'Well, Senator Obama isn’t planning to repeal NAFTA, but he wants to amend it to make it stronger for U.S. workers.' The Canadian embassy writes it up as, 'Well, maybe Obama is not as tough on NAFTA as you might think.' And the Clintons start waving this and saying, 'See? Actually, he’s the one.'" [Mississippi Rally, 3/10/08]

4. 2/29/08: Sen. Obama: 'It did not happen.' Anchor: "So, completely inaccurate, did not happen, end of discussion." Sen. Obama: "It did not happen." [WKYC TV, 2/29/08]

3. 2/28/08 - Rice: 'There had been no contact.' “The Canadian ambassador issued a statement that was absolutely false. There had been no contact. There had been no discussions on NAFTA. So we take the Canadians at their word…period.” [MSNBC, Susan Rice, 2/28/08]

2. 2/27/08 – Obama advisor just said 'hello.' "Goolsbee: Canada's consul general in Chicago contacted him ‘at one point to say ‘hello’ because their office is around the corner." [ABC, 2/29/08]

1. 2/27/08 – 'No conversations have taken place' with the Canadian government on NAFTA. “Earlier Thursday, the Obama campaign insisted that no conversations have taken place with any of its senior ranks and representatives of the Canadian government on the NAFTA issue.” [CTV, 2/29/08]

SNL at it again!

Another great SNL opener from last night!

They might have not endorsed Hillary officially, but they sure seem to like her!

Have the tides turned?

I wanted to leave you all with a few thoughts for the weekend. Over the past few days I was incapacitated with the flu and was unable to watch TV or check any online news. Perhaps I should get sick more often, as when I checked todays news there seems to lots of positive things out there about Mrs. Clinton. From Wolf telling us she "has her mojo back" to the talks about getting delegates from MI and FL seated at the convention this June.

While this new lean toward Hillary is more than welcome by me, I am left wondering if we really are all being played like a fiddle by the media. This whole election seems so orchestrated. We have front runner Clinton surpassed by the scrappy little Senator from Illinois only to once again come out on top a few months later. Throughout the whole debacle we have been glued to the TV, Internet and even our local papers. For once the media economy is being driven by something other than Britney Spears.

While the democratic party is being torn apart (I don't buy this whole "we will be a united party in the end BS" after the past few weeks), John McCain finesses his campaign and the media carefully crafts the next ups and downs of the campaign....

Obama the whiner

Firstly congratulations to Senator Clinton! Our voices were heard!!!

There has been a lot of whining from the Obama camp about the delegates and how they are assigned. Obama complains about the super delegates not having to be tied to the outcome of the state. This whole complaint, to me, seems rather childish and is a good example of the kind of leader Obama would be.

He wants to change the rules mid race. The fact is, that he knew these rules before the race started and only now, because the race is so close, he wants to bend them in his favor. CNN has even gone so far as to poll people in yesterday's elections to get their opinions. The majority of the people thought the super delegates should be tied to the outcome of the state. My question is: Did they even know what or who super delegates were before this race?

Perhaps these same people would be angry to know that in TX, where Sen. Clinton won the popular vote, she may receive less delegates? It is this same complex delegate math that keeps the race so close, and too tight to call.

My hypothetical, since that what Obama likes to deal in when it comes to delegates, is to take it all one step further. Why don't we see what it would be like if we had a winner takes all primary like the Republicans. The chart to your right are the current results of the primary if we are to follow the Republican model of winner take all (super delegates included).

What we see is that Clinton has a clear advantage, and then if you add in Florida and Michigan she is well on her way to sealing up the nomination. So maybe Barack better let the rules stay the way they have always been. Stop whining, Sen. Obama.

HILLARY appears on SNL!

Following another clever skit, one that again contrasted the media's fawning adulation of Obama with the biased hostility exhibited towards Hillary - Senator Clinton appeared to trade a few barbs with her impersonator Amy Poehler.

And, of course, to utter those seven famous words:

"Live from New York, it's Saturday Night!"